On Sunday, at Step 2, we at NBA Daily Picks had a winning bet. Today we are going with Step 1 and betting 1 unit. You can check 33% System rules here. In this post 33% System results are shown. If we were using flat betting at this moment we would be 5.16 units down.
Date: 02.04.2013.
Fixture: LA Clippers @ Washington
Pick: LA Clippers -3
Odds: 1.99 (-101) @ Pinnacle
Amount: 1 unit
Outcome: LOSE
WIN-LOSE: 42-46-4 (47.73%)
33% System Profit: +9.46 units
Flat Betting Profit: -6.16 units
The reason for the pick:
LA Clippers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.
LA Clippers are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 h2h meetings in Washington.
LA Clippers are 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 h2h meetings.
Road team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 h2h meetings.
That pick makes zero logic! You should avoid posting the ATS stats etc. Line opened at -3.5 and with 74% of the bettors on the Clippers the line dropped to -3.....and you still pick that?? With the starts out (CP3 and Griffin)in the LA formation and with the Wizards covering 7 out of 10 ATS in the last 10 games....and you still pick that?
ReplyDeleteYou always pick the obvious one...every single day!
Sincerely what's the point of this blog?? Is it to show that a chase system might work even with a negative record???
Good morning Easypicks,
DeleteFirst of all thanks for your comment. It's always nice to see that people are following us.
Why did I go with the Clippers... Despite the Clippers team not being complete I still thought they were good enough to beat the Wizards. Washington was on a 4 game losing streak and 3 points margin looked like a real value bet with odds of -101. It turned out you were right and I wasn't. Good for you!
You are talking about line movements. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm never taking that into consideration. That's just the reaction the bookies are making based on the amount of money people wage on one team or another. In other words it's just a reflection of public opinion. I don't see any correlation between public opinion and the outcome of the game. If public was right each time then the bookies would have been out of business for a long time...but that's not the case. Again, that's just my opinion.
You are saying that I'm going with an "obvious one...every single day". What do you mean with obvious one? If you mean with the favorite then it's just not true. 42 out of 88 bets were with odds of -105 and higher, so in 47.73% bets I was going against the favorite or with one of the even teams. You can check this on my results page here: http://nbadailypicks.blogspot.co.at/p/33-system.html
I'm not pretending to be a NBA expert. If I was one, then I'd be making a living out of it and/or selling my picks on the net. No, I'm doing this for fun, playing with moderate stakes and sharing my picks for free with all of you. In this blog I'm trying to prove the quality of 33% System. It is a chase system, but it has a fail safe mechanism where you stop after 5 lost bets in a row and start again. At this moment this system is giving me +9.46 units of profit and it's all documented. If you know of any other transparent free NBA site with the current profit and all of the bets documented, please let me know. Would like to check it for my self.
Thanks once again and I do hope you'll continue following us and leaving comments. From your comment it's obvious you follow the game closely and I'm looking forward to your future comments.
Keep it going, your blog has helped me.
ReplyDeleteThanks!
DeleteYou are talking about line movements. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm never taking that into consideration. That's just the reaction the bookies are making based on the amount of money people wage on one team or another. In other words it's just a reflection of public opinion. I don't see any correlation between public opinion and the outcome of the game. If public was right each time then the bookies would have been out of business for a long time...but that's not the case. Again, that's just my opinion. ------ what does this have to do with what I said?
ReplyDelete74% OF THE PUBLIC WERE WITH THE CLIPPERS!!!! AND YOU SAY IF PUBLIC WAS RIGHT.... PUBLIC IS AN AVERAGE OF 50% wrong and 50% right, books win the juice. But in this particular case public were mislead by the books!!!! It was a trap line! And when I said obvious I didn't mean the fav's or those with higher juice etc etc...I've said OBVIOUS in the way that you always pick the bets that jump to the eye....there's nothing new behind your reasons when picking games!
Anyways, gl and bye bye
Hi Easypicks,
ReplyDeleteMy point was just that I don't care about the line movements. Didn't comment at all where the public was with this particular pick. I was speaking in general.
Well, I don't mind going with "obvious" picks as long as I'm making a profit. Profit is all I care and if the pick is obvious or not it's totally irrelevant to me.